East Front News #91: Vilnius as the quiet force shaping Europe's future, drones and transporters for Ukraine

France is preparing Europe for defence without the USA

France is increasingly developing defence scenarios in which Europe must be capable of defending itself without direct support from the United States. This shift reflects growing concerns in Paris about the unpredictability of American policy and Europe’s dependence on US military capabilities. French strategic planning now assumes greater European autonomy, particularly in potential conflict scenarios in the Baltic region, where rapid escalation with Russia is seen as a realistic risk.

However, significant challenges remain, including limited missile defence systems, logistical constraints, and the absence of a fully integrated European command structure. While the concept does not reject NATO, it seeks to reduce reliance on US involvement by strengthening European capabilities and cooperation. This evolving approach marks a major shift in European security thinking, with the Baltic region identified as a key testing ground for future defence readiness.

Author: Aleksander Olech

NATO's north-eastern flank adds more Korean K9 howitzers

Finland has signed a €547 million deal with South Korea to procure 112 K9 self-propelled howitzers, with deliveries expected to begin in 2028. The purchase will expand its K9 fleet to 208 units, making Helsinki second only to Poland in Europe in terms of K9 inventory. Warsaw currently operates 212 of the more than 600 howitzers it has ordered.

Notably, all other European K9 operators are also located on NATO’s north-eastern flank, including Norway and Estonia. Romania, meanwhile, ordered 54 Korean howitzers in 2024, with the first units already leaving the production line earlier this month.

The trend underscores both the region’s strong focus on expanding artillery capabilities and its growing defence-industrial ties with South Korea, which has also recently supplied Europe with K2 Black Panther tanks, K239 Chunmoo rocket systems, and FA-50 light combat aircraft.

Author: Kacper Kremiec

Narva and Klaipeda in Putin's crosshairs?

Recent reports about the possible creation of „people’s republics” in Narva and Klaipėda are largely linked to Russian disinformation efforts rather than genuine separatist movements. These narratives exploit the demographic reality of Russian-speaking populations in both cities, aiming to generate concern and attract international attention. Analysts suggest that such campaigns are often amplified by fringe pro-Russian groups and serve more as propaganda tools than reflections of real political ambitions.

Experts argue that, despite ongoing information operations, there is no actual separatist movement in the Baltic states today. Unlike Ukraine in 2014, Estonia and Lithuania have stable political systems and effective security services capable of responding to external interference. While Russia’s broader strategic intentions toward the region cannot be dismissed, current activities are seen as part of a long-term influence campaign rather than preparation for immediate military action.

Author: Michał Górski

Japan's expanding arms export

Japan is gradually re-entering the global arms market after decades of restrictions, driven by policy changes under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and growing regional security concerns. Defence companies such as Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are expanding production and hiring staff in response to rising demand. Countries like Poland and the Philippines have emerged as potential buyers, with initial exports likely including used naval equipment to support regional security, particularly in the South China Sea.

This shift reflects a broader strategic trend, offering Europe and other partners an alternative to reliance on US military supplies. The move builds on earlier reforms initiated by Shinzo Abe and responds to China’s growing military power as well as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US policy. With its strong economy and industrial base, Japan aims to develop independent supply chains and strengthen defence cooperation with allies, positioning itself as a significant new player in the global arms market.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Record delivery of drones for Ukraine

The United Kingdom has announced plans to deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine in 2026, marking the largest such shipment since the start of the full-scale war. The package will include a wide range of systems, from FPV drones to long-range strike, reconnaissance, logistical drones, and even unmanned surface vessels. Deliveries have already begun, highlighting the urgency of continued military support.

Drones have become a critical component of Ukraine’s defence and offensive operations, with their effectiveness reflected in the scale of Russian drone usage and battlefield losses. British Defence Secretary John Healey emphasised that these systems are essential for strengthening Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. The commitment was reaffirmed during a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Berlin, attended by key NATO and Ukrainian officials.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Germany holds Ukraine line despite political headwinds

Germany has reaffirmed its strong military and financial support for Ukraine, framing it increasingly as a matter of strategic self-interest rather than solidarity. During President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Berlin, the government announced a substantial aid package, including Patriot missiles, IRIS-T systems, drone cooperation, and a new battlefield data-sharing initiative. This approach allows Germany to benefit from Ukraine’s combat experience while strengthening its own defence industry.

Despite this commitment, growing economic pressures at home pose a challenge to sustaining public support. Slower economic growth, rising energy costs, and political pressure from opposition groups are testing domestic consensus. While Berlin has pledged continued long-term assistance, the durability of its Ukraine policy may depend on whether it can maintain public backing amid worsening economic conditions.

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

Inside Vilnius: the quiet force shaping Europe's future

Lithuania positions itself as a strong advocate for Ukraine and a key actor in shaping Europe’s security, emphasising the need for intensified political, military, and economic support to ensure Kyiv’s victory. In the interview, Deputy Foreign Minister Audra Plepytė highlights that Europe’s future security depends on Ukraine’s success, calling for deeper EU and NATO engagement, stronger sanctions on Russia, and a clear path for Ukraine’s integration into European and transatlantic structures.

At the same time, Lithuania faces ongoing hybrid threats from Russia and Belarus, including cyber-attacks, disinformation, and border pressure, which require enhanced resilience and regional cooperation. The country also stresses the importance of close ties with Poland, broader engagement in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, and maintaining a strong transatlantic partnership with the United States as essential pillars of long-term European stability and deterrence.

Author: Aleksander Olech

New deliveries for the Spanish army

Spain continues to advance its VCR Dragón wheeled infantry fighting vehicle programme despite earlier technical difficulties. In 2025, dozens of vehicles were delivered to military units, with further batches already arriving in 2026. Previous concerns about the programme’s viability appear to have been resolved, and qualification testing of various variants, including command post versions, is currently underway.

The VCR Dragón, based on the Piranha V platform, is a modern 8x8 armoured vehicle equipped with strong protection and mobility features. In its infantry fighting configuration, it is armed with a 30 mm automatic cannon and Spike anti-tank missiles. The platform is designed to enhance the Spanish Army’s operational capabilities through improved firepower, protection, and versatility across multiple mission types.

Author: Damian Ratka

French transporters for Ukraine? training in Poland

France has launched a new training programme in Poland for Ukrainian soldiers focused on the maintenance of VAB armoured personnel carriers. The initiative, announced by the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, follows ongoing training efforts that also include urban combat and close-quarters battle techniques. The introduction of maintenance training suggests that additional deliveries of VAB vehicles to Ukraine may be planned, although specific details remain undisclosed.

France has already supplied over 400 VAB carriers to Ukraine, making them a key component of its armoured fleet. As the French Army replaces these vehicles with newer models, older platforms are being transferred abroad. The VAB remains a versatile and durable system, offering mobility, basic protection, and adaptable weapon configurations, which continue to support Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.

Author: Adam Świerkowski