Ex-Wagnerites are losing the war in Mali [ANALYSIS]

Mali is a gold-rich country in West Africa. It has been in a permanent state of war since 2012. At that time, elected president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta could count on support from French troops and the MINUSMA mission (the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) in the fight against Islamists linked either to al-Qaeda or to Tuareg ethnic rebel units. In 2020 and 2021, the country saw a double coup d’état carried out by Colonel Assimi Goïta, who first overthrew Keïta and then his interim, „his own,” president Ba Ndaou. Goïta became head of the National Committee for the Salvation of the People. The military takeover in Mali is described as being inspired by the Russian Federation, since Goïta forced the French to leave the country. The new dictator of Mali also met Vladimir Putin in 2023.

The junta’s military ally became the Wagner Group, and later, after mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny and the reorganization of the units, the Africa Corps, a new formation made up of ex-Wagner personnel. Mali became an exotic auxiliary front in the Russian-Ukrainian war, because in 2024 Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) boasted that it was passing intelligence to Tuareg units, which ambushed and massacred Russian mercenaries.

Afrika Korps 2.0?

In 2023, the military junta and the Africa Corps launched an offensive in the rebel province of Kidal, where MINUSMA military bases were located. The apparent victory in the Malian-Russian campaign clearly defined the sides in the armed conflict. There are not two sides in Mali’s war, but four: the Malian-Russian coalition; the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg armed movement fighting for the country’s northern lands; the Tuareg are a Berber nomadic people living across the borderlands of Libya, Algeria, Mauritania, and Mali. In addition, Mali’s al-Qaeda — the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) — and the „Greater Sahara” cell of the so-called Islamic State (IS-GS) are also fighting.

In the battle of Tinzaouaten on the Malian-Algerian border, the massacre of Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers I mentioned took place. It exposed the fact that the government army, even with Russian support, is incapable of conducting deep operations in desert terrain. Government control was illusory, and the rebels were preparing a counterstrike. JNIM used this to launch a series of attacks near Mali’s capital, Bamako, paralyzing roads and the functioning of offices linked to the junta.

Minister killed

On 25th April, an offensive began by groups opposed to the Malian government. JNIM struck Mali’s defense minister, Sadio Camara. Information available in the infosphere indicates that his villa was hit with a vehicle packed with explosives (SVBIED). The minister was killed in the attack along with his family. Camara was a supporter of Bamako’s alliance with Moscow. JNIM also carried out an attack on the capital’s airport, which was being defended by Russian mercenaries. Meanwhile, the Tuareg struck government assets in Kidal province. During the fighting, the Russians are also said to have lost an Mi-8 helicopter. The circumstances of the Africa Corps evacuation from one of the bases in Mali are unknown. The video footage looks like a repeat of the ten-day war in Syria, when Moscow had to negotiate with the rebels while withdrawing its soldiers, who offered no resistance. The video shows Russian convoys heading in an unknown direction. They are not being harassed by militants. They probably withdrew from Kidal.           

How is the war being reported by the Malian government? The Malian army said in a statement that „unidentified armed terrorist groups attacked certain locations and barracks” in Bamako and that soldiers were „engaged in eliminating the attackers.” In a later statement, the army said the situation was under control, Al Jazeera reported. The station nevertheless described the attacks as „unprecedented” and said the Malian authorities were caught by surprise. That, therefore, confirms that the attacks are on a large scale.   

An account linked to the Africa Corps is describing the war this way: „Yesterday, at around 5:30 a.m. on April 25, 2026, terrorist groups »the Azawad Liberation Front« and »al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,« with the support of Western intelligence services and substantial forces (approximately 10,000 to 12,000 men), attempted to carry out a coup d’état in Mali.” The Russians lost the gains they had boasted about in the offensive on Kidal. 

Available information indicates that the Corps is now focused solely on defending the interior, namely Bamako, the capital, and the base in Sévaré. The Russians boast that they repelled the assault on the latter base using mortars whose fire was coordinated by drone.

Operational maps show that the Malian government no longer has access to the Algerian border. The north-east of the country is controlled by JNIM and the FLA, each in its own enclave. In addition, the attacks on Bamako and Sévaré mean that the country’s main logistics hub — the Bamako-Ségou-Sévaré road — may be cut by JNIM. The status of Timbuktu, the historic Berber city on the Niger River, is unknown.