East Front News #83: Polish nuclear, Germany with F-35, and who is leading Europe?

What NATO learned from the Hedgehog-2025 exercise

The Estonian Hedgehog-2025 manoeuvres, involving over 16,000 troops from 12 NATO countries, demonstrated not a battlefield defeat but the growing impact of real-time reconnaissance and drone warfare. Ukrainian operators using the Delta system were able to simulate the destruction of numerous armoured vehicles and render two battalions combat-ineffective within hours, exposing how visible and vulnerable concentrated formations have become on a transparent battlefield.

The exercise highlighted deeper structural issues, particularly slow decision-making and limited information sharing within some Allied forces compared with Ukrainian practices. The main lesson was that drones alone do not decide wars, but they dramatically accelerate the tempo of operations and require doctrinal change, dispersion, camouflage and improved coordination if modern armies are to remain effective.

Author: Dr Aleksander Olech

Is Chancellor Merz really Europe’s Mark Carney?

Comparisons between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have gained attention, but the political and economic contexts differ significantly. While both leaders emphasise transatlantic cooperation and warn against protectionism, Merz governs from a far weaker domestic position, leading a divided coalition with low public approval and limited political capital.

Germany also faces structural economic challenges absent in Canada, including declining exports to the United States under tariff pressure, high energy costs and growing competition from Chinese industry. Moreover, Berlin must operate within complex EU decision-making mechanisms, making decisive leadership more difficult; the comparison therefore appears more aspirational than reflective of real influence.

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

Russia recruits Kenyan mercenaries for the war in Ukraine

A report by Kenya’s National Intelligence Service indicates that more than 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited by Russia to fight against Ukraine, far exceeding earlier estimates. Recruits — including soldiers, police officers and civilians — were attracted by salaries, bonuses and the promise of Russian citizenship, then transported via organised networks involving intermediaries and corrupt officials before receiving basic training and deployment to the front line.

The findings illustrate Moscow’s growing reliance on foreign manpower to compensate for heavy losses, with dozens of recruits wounded, repatriated or unaccounted for. Despite technological developments in warfare, the case demonstrates that personnel shortages remain a critical factor shaping Russia’s military effort.

Germany considers buying additional US F-35 fighters

Berlin is reportedly weighing a further purchase of American F-35 aircraft, a step that would deepen reliance on US defence technology despite political calls for greater European military autonomy. The move comes as the Franco-German Future Combat Air System struggles with industrial disputes, with cooperation increasingly limited to drones and digital networking rather than a joint sixth-generation fighter.

Additional F-35s would also ensure continuation of Germany’s role in NATO nuclear sharing, as the aircraft is the only Western fighter certified to carry US B61 nuclear bombs. The decision illustrates the gap between ambitions of European strategic autonomy and the practical dependence of even major powers on American capabilities.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Russia warns US against a naval blockade of Cuba

Russia has called on the United States to refrain from imposing a naval blockade on Cuba, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declaring continued political and economic support for Havana and rejecting claims that Russian-Cuban cooperation threatens US security. Moscow also announced plans to supply oil and petroleum products to the island as humanitarian aid.

Cuban officials accused Washington of tightening sanctions and undermining international law, while stressing their intention to maintain cooperation with Russia and continue economic recovery efforts. The episode reflects a broader geopolitical contest in Latin America, where Moscow seeks influence and strategic partnerships in response to Western pressure elsewhere.

Author: Justyna Smoleń

Germany and France can no longer lead Europe alone

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski argued that the balance of power in the European Union is shifting, stating that Germany and France are now too weak to dominate decision-making. He called for leadership shared between Western and Central-Eastern European states and positioned Poland as a representative voice of the region, highlighting its participation in the E5 format alongside major European powers.

The interview also addressed Polish-German relations, security concerns and the war in Ukraine. Sikorski emphasised the need for closer military cooperation with Berlin, warned about Russian sabotage and missile threats from Kaliningrad, and reiterated continued European support for Ukraine’s sovereignty while accusing Moscow of seeking Kyiv’s capitulation.

Author: Amelia Wojciechowska

Russian state media issues nuclear threats against Poland

During a broadcast by Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Russia threatened to „immediately destroy” Warsaw, Kraków and Gdańsk in response to perceived Polish military activity, according to monitoring by the Belarusian opposition channel Nexta. The remarks form part of an escalating information campaign portraying Poland as a direct threat to Russia and Belarus.

The incident follows another narrative promoted in pro-Kremlin media alleging Polish intelligence involvement in a GRU-related assassination plot. Together, these messages indicate a coordinated anti-Polish disinformation effort designed to intimidate and shape public perception amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Author: Michał Bruszewski

Polish opposition clashes with government over the EU SAFE Programme

Polish politics and public debate have recently been dominated by a confrontation between the government and the opposition over the EU SAFE programme. After the EU approved Poland’s €43.7bn investment plan, the Sejm passed an implementation law. The vote triggered strong resistance from the eurosceptic, US-oriented Law and Justice (PiS), which argues that SAFE would disproportionately benefit German industry via the „buy European” clause, restrict financing for U.S. or South Korean arms purchases, and give the EU leverage over Warsaw if funds were suspended, as was the case with the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

The pro-European governing coalition defends SAFE on financial and industrial grounds, citing favourable lending terms (lower interest rates than domestic borrowing and a 10-year grace period for principal repayments) and the programme’s focus on strengthening Polish and European defence industry. It is now pressing PiS-backed President Karol Nawrocki to sign the law, stressing that roughly 80% of spending would stay in Poland and that loan repayment would be kept outside the defence budget. It also warns that a veto would not cancel the funds, but would significantly complicate their effective use.

Author: Kacper Kremiec

Could Poland develop nuclear weapons? Risks, timelines and alternatives

The interview assesses the feasibility of a Polish nuclear weapons programme, concluding that it would require withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, expose the country to sanctions and political pressure from allies, and increase the risk of a preventive Russian strike. Although technically possible, Poland currently lacks the necessary infrastructure and would need tens of billions of złoty and at least 5–10 years to produce a first device, followed by many more years to build a credible deterrent force.

Instead, the discussion highlights strengthening conventional capabilities and allied nuclear deterrence as more realistic options. Developing long-range missiles, deeper cooperation with NATO and a stronger European nuclear role — particularly involving France — are presented as ways to enhance security while keeping open a long-term „threshold state” option should the strategic environment deteriorate.

Author: Dr Aleksander Olech (interview with Artur Kacprzyk)